Arrive Logistics March 2024 Freight Market Update

Arrive Logistics has released its March 2024 Freight Market Update, and we're breaking down the report for you.

Key Points

• Demand's holding steady, with load postings aligning closely with last year's figures. U.S. import volumes are keeping pace, even with challenges like Red Sea disruptions.

• Supply's correcting but at a slower pace. We're seeing more new entrants and fewer revocations, hinting at a stabilizing carrier population.

• Spot rates have dipped, reaching near cycle lows again. But, diesel prices stabilizing offers a bit of a breather.

Demand Dynamics

Spot load postings in February dropped 28% from January and were down nearly 12% YoY. Yet, this is an improvement over the 36% year-over-year plunge in January.

• Both tender volumes and accepted loads are seeing an uptick.

Supply

Moderating Exit Rates: There has been a slowdown in the rate at which carriers are leaving the market, coupled with an uptick in new entrants.

With dry van tender rejections dipping below 4%, there's a hint a steadiness. Reefer tender rejection rates are just below 5%, slightly higher YoY.

Rates

Spot Rates Take a Dip: Across the board, we're seeing a downward trend, with dry van spot rates hitting $1.55 per mile, a nod to the cycle lows observed in October 2023. Reefer rates aren't faring much better, with a notable slide to $1.84 per mile in March, marking a 12% decline from January.

Contract Rates Hold Steady: Despite the fluctuations in spot rates, contract rates have remained relatively stable. For dry vans, rates are at $2.03 per mile, while reefer rates have experienced a slight adjustment, now sitting at $2.60 per mile excluding fuel.

The spot-to-contract rate spread widening by $0.05 to $0.48 per mile

What’s Next?

The balance between supply and demand suggest a market headed toward stablization. With diesel prices steadying and the spot-to-contract rate spread offering insights, all roads lead to cautious optimism.

Source: Arrive Logistics

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